
Before we gloat about "victory" in Iraq, we might peel away the thin band-aid of peace and see what's festering underneath. The U.S. has trained three separate armies who, after we leave, will be at each other's throats for a decade.
We have financed, trained and armed Iraq's "official" army in Baghdad, who are led by Shi'a. Perhaps 150 to 200 thousand can be counted on to fight. Meanwhile, in Anbar province, we have bribed our former Sunni enemies to fight with us, arming and training an army of 100 thousand called the "Sons of Iraq." They form the backbone of the vaunted "Sunni Awakening." They served Al Qaeda once, and before that, Sadam Hussein.
Confrontations have already flared between these two armies of sectarian archenemies. Iraq's President Malaki decreed that the Sons of Iraq must not exist as an independent force. The question is not whether these armies will fight. The question is, will Americans get out in time to avoid the civil war.
If this situation isn't volatile enough, there are now armed confrontations between the Kurds and the Baghdad government in the North. Through the five years of this war, the U.S. has armed and financed the Kurds. In fact, our military support for them began years before the 2003 invasion, under the Clinton administration, when Northern Iraq became a separate "no-fly" zone. Try telling the Kurds that they must become part of a federated Iraqi government, centered in Baghdad.
What Americans have never understood is that the Kurds are absolutely committed to an independent Kurdistani state. And we have given them the military might to realize that dream.
Within two years, we will see an Iraqi civil war in comparison to which the former violence was a skirmish. This will be a three-way civil war, between Kurds in the North, Sunnis in the West, and Shi'a in the South. The war will be a direct result of our military meddling in a region of the world of whose cultural complexity the Bush administration was woefully ignorent. The war will compel intervention by Iran, Russia, Turkey, and eventually, Nato.Americans who think our troubles in Iraq are almost over need to wake up. Iraq will be the center of history for a long time to come, as it was the birthplace of history in the ancient past.
There is one possibility for peace: Joe Biden's plan. Biden has suggested a confederation of semi-autonomous provinces, Sunni, Shi'a and Kurd. He won't admit it, but the ideal of confederation won't work. What he's really talking about is a tri-partite Iraq: three separate nations. Under this arrangement, the Sunni West would eventually be absorbed into Syria, the Shi'a East into Iran, and the Kurds would battle Turkey for independence in the North.
Admittedly, this arrangement might complicate oil contracts for Exxon-Mobil, and Americans would have to give up the fantasy of a U.S. colony in the Fertile Crescent. But with a little luck, and the blessings of Allah, the division of Iraq would avoid World War III.
By the way, if this solution sounds like a tragedy for "the nation" of Iraq, learn some history. There never was an Iraqi nation until the British invented it in 1922 for the sole purpose of fronting the Anglo-Persion Oil Company, now known as British Petroleum. In all the history of the Middle East, no nation existed there to unite Sunni, Shi'a and Kurd. They were, and will always remain, separate "Villayats", or tribal alliances.
General David Petraeus refuses to use terms like "victory" or even "winning" for the surge. As late as August, 2008, Petraeus stated that Iraq's relative calm is "fragile and reversible." If Bush and McCain didn't know what they were talking about, at least General Petraeus did.
One hopes that Barack Obama will listen to skilled military advisers who know the lessons of history, instead of political ideologues who still believe in the empire.









